Sussex County population growth still in question

Sussex County is growing. The question is, how fast.

During the process of writing the 2018 Sussex County comprehensive plan, planning and zoning commissioners have been clamoring for more accurate population projections over the next 30 years.

During an April 21 commission workshop, a consultant presented commissioners with additional projections. Alexis Williams said the adjusted number is just over 67,800 new full- and part-time residents by 2045, an increase of nearly a third from the previous projection.

The report came at the request of Commissioner Marty Ross, who had earlier questioned the projected population growth of 46,500 new residents – an average of 1,550 per year –by 2045. He said there was no way the projection included second-home and seasonal residents.

Ross said it's crucial to have an accurate number as a foundation for the plan, and especially for the transportation and future land-use chapters.

The commission sent the consultants and staff back to the drawing board.

Williams said 30 percent of homes – nearly a third – in the county are considered seasonal, accounting for more than 37,000 housing units and 94,500 part-time residents in 2015. That number increases the county's population from just over 215,600 to 253,000 in 2015. The total population of part- and free-time residents in 2045 is projected to be about 320,000.

She used the U.S. Census number of 2.5 persons per household when doing projections.

Williams said by 2045, there will be an additional 8,500 new seasonal housing units accounting for more than 21,250 new seasonal residents.

Ross doubted the numbers. “It's a great place to start, but the numbers don't add up. It's important that we don't undershoot this number, and I'm worried we are extremely undershooting it,” he said.

Ross said the county has been averaging about 2,200 building permits per year. “I don't see a compelling reason for this to change,” he said. “I still think we need a better number because this one could be terribly wrong.”

The adjusted projection is an average of about 2,200 new residents per year over the next 30 years.

Previous to the discussion, Rep. Rich Collins, R-Millsboro, spoke about population trends to the commission during the public comment period. His projections were far lower than numbers the county is considering.

Collins said based on research done by General Assembly staff, Sussex County will see declining growth over the next few decades compared to the last few years. Collins said the population is projected to increase by 5,700 from 2025 to 2030 and increase 4,200 from 2035 to 2040.

In contrast, he said, the county's population increased by more than 13,800 new residents and 7,200 new households from 2010 to 2015.

Wheatley said Collins' numbers do not reflect the 11,000 building permits issued in the past five-year time frame. Using 2.5 residents per household, that number would be 27,500 new residents, which is double the number Collins gave to the commission.

Wheatley asked Collins to take their concerns back to the researchers to get more information.

“We need to reconcile the population number; it's critical,” Ross said.