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The July 4th weekend usually brings the most traffic of any weekend during the year in the Cape Region. But this first real test of Route 1’s carrying capacity could be tempered by a reduction in travel fueled by the high cost of gas. Add in a less-than-fine weekend weather forecast, and predicting traffic conditions on Route 1 is about as easy as finding a business to change dollar bills into quarters for the hungry meters in downtown Rehoboth Beach.
New and improved, the project provides three travel lanes – plus a lane for turning, bus and bike traffic - in both directions from Five Points to the Rehoboth Beach entrance. Route 1 will get its baptism by fire this weekend.
Record gas prices and a tentative economy have muddled the travel waters to the point it’s anyone’s guess how many people will load up the SUV or hybrid and head to the beach.
About 200,000 people visit the resort during a typical July Fourth holiday weekend, said Carol Everhart, president and CEO of the Rehoboth Beach-Dewey Beach Chamber of Commerce. Even with record gas prices and predictions of less travel, Everhart said her indicators point to the same number of visitors this year.
“Some businesses are telling me there are less people coming to the beaches, but I can’t find the track of information to support that,” she said.
“The traffic counts and meter revenue do not say there are less people here.”
But, she said, people are changing their visitation habits by moving seasonal vacations to weekly ones and weekly trips to extended weekends. “But that does not equate to how people will spend their money,” she said.
Everhart said in that regard the slipping economy is having an impact on the resort area.
“That is the common thread when you talk to business people,” she said.
Throw into the mix the fact that AAA Mid-Atlantic is predicting a 1.3 percent decrease in travel by state residents, the same number that is predicted nationally, and it is the second straight holiday weekend for a predicted decline. That makes it open season for July 4th weekend travel predictions.
But, according to AAA, 111,000 Delawareans still plan to travel 50 miles or more this holiday weekend.
“This is the first time this decade that AAA is projecting a decline in 4th of July travel,” said Catherine L. Rossi, manager of public and government affairs. “We expect most people will not travel far from home.”
She said the projected decline is a direct reflection of rising gas, utility and food prices.
“Yet, Delawareans will undoubtedly take advantage of the three-day holiday weekend by traveling to destinations close to home, like the beaches,” Rossi added. Always the optimist, Everhart said there are promising trends pointing to another banner summer season – in spite of the gloom and doom predictions.
Everhart said on a good week her office mails out about 4,500 requests for information. Over the past month, the weeks have totaled 9,000 and two weeks of 6,000 mailings. “That usually equates to more visits,” she said.
About 6 million visitors come to the Cape Region each year. Everhart said that number should not fluctuate much this year, but the numbers from late June and July will tell a tale. Accommodations were up 4 percent from the previous year over the Memorial Day weekend, but accommodations have either been the same or down every other weekend, she said.
The bottom line: The beaches will be packed if the weather is good. There is a 30 percent chance of showers Friday night; a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms and a 60 percent chance of showers on Saturday; and a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. The tentative weather forecast further complicates the traffic prediction.
“It’s always about the weather,” Everhart said.
‘All we can do’
On an average day in July more than 73,000 vehicles pass by a Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) traffic count device at the intersection of Route 1 and Route 24.
Outside of the Wilmington area, it’s the busiest intersection in the state, according to DelDOT traffic data.
“We’ve done all we can do to create capacity,” said Tina Shockley, DelDOT spokeswoman, referring to the new Route 1 project. “It has to be better, but this weekend will be a test.”
She said the Transportation Management Center (TMC) in Smyrna will be on high alert all weekend using 80 cameras throughout the state to monitor traffic – and adjust traffic signal timing if needed.
In the past, DelDOT staff has monitored key intersections in the Cape Region during busy holiday traffic periods to provide information back to the TMC. “There is only so much we can do, but the priority is to keep north-south traffic moving,” she said.
Price of gas
Memorial Day traffic is usually a piece of cake compared to July 4th, and the normal exodus to the sun and sand may be exacerbated because of the high premium people are paying at the gas pumps. City folks, trying to trim the $75 to $100 fill up on their SUVs, are staying closer to home. That means they are coming to the Cape Region, which in relative terms is closer to Washington, D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia than vacation destinations in North Carolina and Virginia.
The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in Delaware was $4.04 as of Tuesday, July 1, compared to the national average of $4.09. Prices in the Cape Region, for self-serve regular, range from $3.99 to $4.15.
Number of vehicles
Although average daily traffic counts at the Route 1-Route 24 intersection show more traffic in June – nearly 76,800 vehicles per day compared to nearly 73,400 in July - a three-day July 4th holiday weekend is considered one of the busiest travel weekends of the year in the Cape Region.
Even with the anticipated decrease in travel, that still means about 100,000 vehicles will pack the roads between Thursday and Monday on Route 1.
Shockley said DelDOT officials’ only worry is the abuse of the multi-use lane, a fourth lane from Five Points to Route 24 on both sides of the highway restricted to buses, bicycles and vehicles making right-hand turns.
She said it’s easy to see a scenario of frustrated motorists in a hurry getting stuck in traffic using the lane as a travel lane.
“That’s not what it’s for and state police have been enforcing that,” Shockley said. “It’s OK to get into the lane between signals if you are making a right-hand turn, but not before.”
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