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If Sussex County lands are developed to their full capacity under current zoning rules, the county’s 184,000 residents would swell to a population of 2 million. That’s more than 10 times the current population.
Dave Wilson, coordinator of the Delmarva Atlantic Watershed Network (DAWN), said of the four Atlantic coastal counties, “Sussex has, by far, the most permissible zoning.” The network encompasses Sussex County, Delaware, Worcester County, Maryland, and Accomack and Northampton counties in Virginia.
Sussex County’s agricultural-residential zoning allows two lots per acre. Wilson said the county covers approximately 500,000 acres, not counting water.
DAWN planners say county zoning allows 1 million dwelling units.
Network planners looked at Sussex County’s half million acres and subtracted tidal and nontidal wetlands and lands preserved under state and local programs. They then applied county zoning to the remaining developable acres and found if the county is fully built up, some 2 million people will call it home.
Ed Lewandowski, executive director of the Center for the Inland Bays, said the planners multiplied the number of buildable lots by 2.3 – the average number of people per household by state numbers, to reach the 2 million figure.
“Some say the numbers are far-fetched. The statement is that, under current zoning, this is the potential,” Lewandowski said.
He said the point of the models is to show what can happen to the county in the future, but they do not predict at what point in time the county will max out its building capacity. Still, the computer models help planners anticipate the effects of possible development. One of those effects is increased nutrient loading.
At the current development rate, network studies show Sussex County will lose nearly 80 percent of its forestland and 80 percent of its agricultural land. In some areas, nutrient pollution would soar.
Lewandowski said, the development community says it can control pollution through advanced stormwater management techniques, but some science has demonstrated that nutrient pollution increases when landscapes are urbanized.
Models also allow planners and others to compare the four coastal counties that comprise the network.
DAWN has called Worcester County the model to which the other counties should aspire.
The Maryland county, if built to full capacity under its current zoning of five lots per parcel, will have 80,000 residents, said Wilson. That is twice its current population. Worcester County allows five lots per parcel, regardless of the size of the parcel.
In 2005, planners, business leaders and officials from Sussex, Worcester, Accomack and Northampton Counties, the four Atlantic coastal counties of Delmarva, came together to look at the shore as a region – focusing on coastal development, tourism, water quality, public education, agriculture and wildlife habitat. They examined growth issues across the four counties, comparing and contrasting what each would look like if built to capacity.
With the help of planning software and colorful graphics compiled by Chuck Donley, of Donley and Associates, the network showed citizens of all four counties the sharp contrasts between the potential results of each county’s zoning regulations. The model brings to light the sobering fact that in a few decades under current laws, little would be left of today’s Eastern Shore.
DAWN received funding from Maryland, Virginia, the University of Delaware and the Center for the Inland Bays.
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