How are we ever going to evacuate?

I appreciated Dennis Forney's article on the Five Points traffic study, online at www.capegazette.com/article/first-five-points-study-phase-should-be-near.... Its map, in particular, is instructive: it begins to show how large an area Five Points conditions affect.

While the day-in-and-day-out traffic and congestion levels are important, I believe that any traffic study that relates to continuing development must also address what happens in a weather emergency.

When the governor declares a mandatory evacuation of those within three-quarter miles of the ocean, that puts a lot of cars on the only highway we've got, even if no one else sees fit to leave too. Might be manageable during the spring or fall, but what about a summer weekday? How about a summer weekend? How many cars will be required to evacuate us all? How many hours (or days)? How many will need to fill their gas tanks for what might be a long, slow, low-mileage-per-gallon crawl inland or north? Do our gas stations keep enough fuel on hand for such a situation? How much will each out-of-gas vehicle slow everyone else's trip and clog the roads?

Look at a typical summer Sunday afternoon's traffic, and then consider what it would be if not only the weekend visitors were leaving but also the full-time residents and the weekly renters. Summer midday peaks may not be the relevant metric: on Saturdays, the departing renters have left, the arriving renters aren't arriving yet; on Sundays, the weekend visitors haven't started to leave yet; on weekdays, the visitors are likely on the beach. To get a meaningful answer, one has to ask the right question.

People in Bethany Beach and Fenwick may come north on Coastal Highway. Certainly Dewey, Forgotten Mile and Rehoboth Beach city residents and guests will be on the Coastal Highway. Add to that the traffic from the areas southeast of the Five Points area being studied, including all the homes whose only northbound exits are Bay Vista Road and Shuttle/Country Club Road. Then add in the occupants of the properties within the Five Points area and those coming in from Lewes itself.

Three lanes of cars making the left out of Shuttle Road won't get far if the Coastal Highway is already clogged north of them.

I'd like to see a map which lists the number of homes - single- family, condo, manufactured, etc. - served by each road which exits onto the Coastal Highway. Then let's assume that each household only takes one car to evacuate (leaving all the others behind - even in those six-bedroom rentals, a dubious assumption!), and let's say it is 17 feet long, and they're leaving 10 inches between cars. Four lanes northbound to Five Points will hold 782 cars at a time, per mile. I won't attempt a throughput calculation, but I think we ought to know it, for various speeds. And of course that assumes that the few main roads north and west of Five Points can, between them, handle all those cars.

Until our county's road infrastructure gets caught up to being able to empty out the existing properties within a reasonable period of time in an emergency, it is unconscionable to be approving additional development.

West of Houston, Texas, the road signs for the four-lane highway inland to San Antonio make clear that the right shoulder can be used during a hurricane evacuation. That creates a 50 percent increase in traffic flow westbound. Below Five Points, we have three lanes northbound, plus the bus/bike/turn lane. North of Five Points, the road drops to two lanes, and, if memory serves, no significant shoulder. West of Five Points, one lane.
Until we have highways that will allow us to evacuate effectively, we must not approve more development.

I hope that this will be brought to the attention of Sussex County Council, and that they will recognize the realities involved. As constituents, we must force the issue. The landowners and developers are a minority - and they have much to gain. But we who live here, and the visitors who come here have far more to lose.

Go look at the recent agendas and packets for Sussex County Council meetings and for Sussex Planning and Zoning meetings. Search on "acres" and "homes" and "units," and skim the names for the proposed projects which lack that detail. And then think about normal-day traffic and evacuation traffic.

The Planning and Zoning Commission is responsible for developing Sussex County's 2018 Comprehensive Plan, which will be in effect for 10 years. Read the 2007 update at www.sussexcountyde.gov/download-comprehensive-plan, and see what you think the 2018 plan needs to say.
In the meantime, it seems to me that being prepared to evacuate early, rather than waiting, is very wise. But it doesn't substitute for good county-level planning and decision-making on development and infrastructure.

Wyn Achenbaum
Rehoboth Beach