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Sussex officials seek accurate population projection

How should comp plan reflect influx of season visitors?
June 27, 2017

As Sussex County officials write the 2018 comprehensive land-use plan, they continue to struggle with a fundamental factor – population.

In previous plans, seasonal residents were not included. Sussex planning and zoning commissioners don't want that repeated in the new plan due by the end of next June.

The county's full-time population is 215,000 and the seasonal population is about 135,000 with 38,000 seasonal units, said Edward Ratledge, a member of the Delaware Population Consortium and director of Delaware Center for Applied Demography and Survey Research at the University of Delaware.

"But we really need look at the seasonal population more in depth," he added. He made a presentation to the Sussex County Planning and Zoning Commission during a June 16 workshop.

Ratledge said he would continue to work on more accurate population projections and get back to the commission as soon as possible.

He said the number does not include day visitors and those staying in hotels, motels or campgrounds. He said those numbers approach 50,000 people on a nonholiday weekend.

By the numbers

15,000 households are one person who is 65 years of age or older

2045 – estimated population is 352,000

2015 – nearly 24 percent of the population is over 65 years of age; 14 percent is 65 to 74

That means that on any given weekend from Memorial Day to Labor Day there are more than 400,000 people in Sussex County.

Assistant county attorney Vince Robertson said using three months for seasonal data many not be enough. "Seasonal is almost six months now," he said. "The population numbers affect nearly all elements in the plan. We need those numbers quickly."

Commissioner Marty Ross said the county should follow the lead of Ocean City, Md., which uses the number of toilet flushes to determine the number of people in the resort area. "We need an accurate seasonal number," he said.

Planning for peak demand?

The question the commission is grappling with is whether to plan for full-time residents or when population reaches it peak as nearly double the full-time population, and mostly in the resort area of the county.

"It's more about the pressure on infrastructure than land use. How do we pay for that? How do we get the cost to the right people?" Ross asked.

Wheatley said the plan should reflect the peak load. "People have to be able to flush toilets on the Fourth of July. This is America, after all," Wheatley said. That statement brought laughter from the audience.

Robertson said officials need to look beyond full-time resident population.

Ross said there is no doubt that planning for peak demand must be contained within the future-land chapter of the plan.

Expert says trend will not continue

The county's full-time population is growing at about 3,000 people per year and that trend should continue in the near future but eventually decrease, Ratledge said. Growth is attributed to people – mostly retirees – from nearby states.

Last year, nearly half of the state's building permits – 2,400 of 4,700 – were issued in Sussex County. The number of permits has increased nearly every year since 2009.

The migration of older residents started to increase in 2010, and has risen every year. Without migration, growth in the county would have decreased over the past six years.

"The older people who move here affect the entire structure of the population," Ratledge said.

An older population increases the need for additional medical services, specialized housing and transportation options.

Because of an aging population of baby boomers, Ratledge said, there are now more deaths than births in the county.

Ratledge said planners need to be aware that the population will still increase but not as rapidly as the pool of baby boomers decreases. He said by 2045 most of the baby boomers will be out of the picture. By 2045, he said, the population will increase by 600 to 700 people per year.

Wheatley said that means there will be a lot of homes for sale with not as many people to buy them. "The current bubble has created a lot of development pressure, and that bubble eventually will be gone," he said.

Ross said he doubts that will occur because people will continue to come to the county because of low taxes and the quality of life. "We are emptying New Jersey; our dynamic is different in Sussex County," Ross said.

"What would stop migration?" he asked, adding unless the advantages of lower taxes and building costs changes, the trend should continue.

Ratledge said there will be fewer people coming from New Jersey because some of the high-tax issues forcing people to leave have been changed.

"This is good data to start with, and we have to consider the unique character of Sussex County and add that to the mix," Wheatley said.

The commission will have another workshop from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m., Monday, June 26, in the county administration building, 2 The Circle, Georgetown. Included on the agenda is a discussion on the conservation chapter and time for public comment from 9 to 10 a.m. and 2:30 to 3 p.m.

See more information at www.sussexplan.com.

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