Mortgage rates will remain steady after the Fed left rates unchanged at its June meeting, as expected. The Fed maintained a forecast of two rate cuts in the second half of 2025, but a growing number of Fed officials also predicted no rate cuts this year, reflecting the growing uncertainty about the path of the economy.
Chair Powell emphasized that uncertainty remains the dominant theme for the economy, forcing the Fed to sit on the sidelines. The Fed’s latest “dot plot”—showing Fed officials’ projections about the economy and the path of interest rates—showed expectations of lower economic growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation, relative to their expectations in March. It also showed that Fed officials are pretty divided and uncertain about the path for interest rates. Of the 19 participants, seven predicted no rate cuts in 2025, two predicted one rate cut, eight predicted two rates, and two predicted three rate cuts. The median remained at two rate cuts, the same as in March, but if one person had switched their vote, the median would have fallen to one rate cut.
Ultimately, Chair Powell said the Fed has to be humble about its ability to forecast how tariffs will play out and officials have to wait to see how the economic data actually evolves. He also offered that no one on the committee has very high conviction about their individual projection. This means that until the Fed feels confident that enough time has passed for the economic data to reflect the inflationary impact of tariffs, they will keep rates unchanged.
There is no reason to believe mortgage rates will fall in the near to medium term. While mortgage rates are not entirely determined by the Fed Funds rates, they cannot fall much while the Fed remains on hold.
