The Fed held rates steady at its July meeting on Wednesday, as expected, despite dissents from two officials. All options are on the table for the September 17 meeting, but it’s clear the labor market needs to weaken for a possible rate cut to materialize. Therefore, mortgage rates will stay flat for now, but may move up or down depending on the results of the next two jobs reports.
There were no surprises from today’s meeting, relative to market expectations. Both the vote outcome and the dissents were expected. This is the first time since 1993 that two governors have dissented on a decision, a sign of the uncertainty of this politically fraught moment. In the grand scheme of things, a 25 bps cut one or two meetings earlier or later is not a big deal, but there is even more focus than usual on the timing of the next cut.
All eyes are on the September 17 meeting, with markets thinking there’s a roughly 50% chance for a cut. Chair Powell’s commentary makes it clear that while the cut is possible, it won’t happen if the labor market doesn’t weaken from where it is. Answering a question about the possibility of a September cut, Chair Powell said: “I’m not going to say that, no. We’re just going to need to see the data. It could go in many different directions.” The Fed cannot cut if the labor market stays “in balance,” as it currently is, because there’s still inflation risk from higher tariffs. But if the labor market—specifically the unemployment rate—deteriorates, then they can cut because they are seemingly willing to “see through” any inflation risk for now. Importantly, however, while the recent jobs reports have shown some cracks in the labor market, none have been large enough to justify cutting rates. So the next two reports before the September Fed meeting need to show something different for the rate cut to happen.
Because futures markets are still pricing almost 50% odds for the September rate cut, mortgage rates will likely rise or fall with the next two jobs reports. The first one is coming on Friday morning and the next one is coming on September 5. If they show enough weakness for a cut, then rates will fall, but if they don’t, rates will rise.
