Sussex County voting registration trends red

A steady increase of Republican voters in Sussex County has been brewing since 2015 – a trend that is continuing to grow with the influx of older residents.

“We continue to have more seniors moving here, and many tend to be conservative and Republican,” said Ed Simon, a data analyst who focuses on Sussex County demographics.

According to the Delaware Department of Elections, the number of registered Democrats and Republicans was nearly even in 2015 with Democrats outnumbering by 528 the 56,218 registered Republican voters.

The number of registered Republicans in Sussex County has been pulling away ever since.

In 2016, data shows 60,639 registered Republicans to 58,800 Democrats, increasing in 2017 to 62,683 Republicans and 59,428 Democrats.

Election data posted Oct. 1 shows 64,632 Republicans and 60,587 Democrats.

The numbers, though leaning Republican, are still close, Simon said, so they could easily shift back to a Democratic lead if more young people register as Democrats.

“I don't think it's a major shift for Republicans,” he said. “Whether it can continue is unknown.”

The uptick in Sussex County registered Republicans comes as no surprise to University of Delaware professor Edward Ratledge.

“Currently, more than 5,000 people net move to Delaware as year-round residents each year. And a substantial portion of those people are 55-plus and have picked Delaware as their retirement home. Quite a few are also Sussex seasonal residents who become year-round residents,” Ratledge said. “While Delaware is considered to be a deep blue state, the area does turn more red below the canal.”

Ratledge said of Delaware's three counties, Sussex County's population has the oldest median age – about 49 years. The county grows almost entirely by positive net migration; that is, more people are moving into the county than are leaving it, he said.

Many retire to Sussex County for the area's low property taxes and pension exclusions in Delaware's income tax, Ratledge said. Social Security income also is not taxed, and there is no sales tax, which is enticing to retirees, he said.

“These people tend to be more conservative than others, and are more likely to be Republican or unaffiliated than Democratic,” Ratledge said.

Still, no party can touch the Democratic dominance in New Castle County with more than 215,000 registered voters. The New Castle County total alone exceeds all registered Republican voters statewide by more than 20,000 votes.

Coming in nearly even with New Castle County Republicans are unaffiliated voters, who are not affiliated with any party. Together, statewide totals for Republican and unaffiliated voters are about 23,000 more than the state's nearly 329,000 registered Democrats.

Third-party registrations drop off drastically behind unaffiliated voters.

The Independent Party of Delaware has the fourth largest number of registered voters in the state with 6,265 followed by 1,709 registered Libertarians and 759 registered in the Green Party.

“The unaffiliated are generally the margin of victory for both parties,” Ratledge said. “Perhaps the current political environment is causing more people in general to say no to both parties, remain or become unaffiliated and split their vote accordingly.”

Delaware parties

                            Sussex             Statewide

Democratic              60,587            328,939

Republican           64,632           193,641

Unaffiliated               36,527           158,840

Independent             1,800               6,265

Libertarian                   354              1,709

Partisan                      163                 818

Green                          126                759

Conservative               122               461

Socialist worker               5               120