When I was a kid way back in the '50s, the TV weather forecast consisted of statements like "it'll probably rain tomorrow" or "we're going to get a lot of snow" or "it'll be nice outside." The forecast would last maybe a minute or so and you got the general idea. You knew if you should bring an umbrella or wear your snow boots.
Today's weather forecasts, by contrast, have turned into major sensationalistic hyped-up events filled with information overload. You'll hear what 20 computer models say and how they conflict with each other. And so none of them are right. They'll tell us we're all going to die, or maybe not. It takes them an hour to say basically they don't really know.
They say it might rain and include video footage from the worst rainstorm that ever occurred, with scenes of houses being washed away, bridges collapsing, and the end of civilization as we know it. They'll say it might snow, with background video of the worst blizzard that ever hit the planet, frozen cows, roofs caving, and the end of civilization as we know it. And so on.
The result is that the general populace gets worked into a weather frenzy, running to stock up on toilet paper, chips and beer. Fighting over the last box of Pop Tarts in the supermarket. It never fails, and the TV ratings for the weather shows go through the roof.
And then - we get a little drizzle or some snow flurries, or the storm wanders off in completely the other direction, and they say we "dodged the bullet." In reality, we were simply victims once again of weather hype, looking like a bunch of fools. Maybe there was no bullet heading our way to begin with. A waste of a great panic.
Take tropical storm Hermine for example. I saw weather people on TV warning us that the storm would wash out the coastal barrier and create another inlet, worse than any storm we've ever had here in Delaware, and that it was going to linger off the coast and then come back to finish us off for good. And then - pleasant warm days ensued. Another "dodged bullet" or more sensationalized weather hype?
I certainly am in favor of rational forecasts based on the best available data so we all have an idea of what to expect over the next few days. But the five-day forecast is pretty speculative, to say the least, and the 10-day forecast is pure guesswork. It is never, ever right. Why even bother?
Sure I get that we need to err on the side of caution for public safety. But do the TV weather people really need to gleefully scare the bejeebers out of everyone whenever some unusual weather is approaching? Can't they just lay it out in simple, rational terms? If they don't know what's going to happen, could they just admit it and then stop talking instead of blathering on about every conceivable yet only remotely possible disaster?
When I want to go sailing, I check the radar maps on my iPhone app, stand on the dock, look at the sky and feel the breeze, smell the air, and then decide whether or not to go sailing. I'm usually right, and I'm never completely wrong.
Ab Ream
Millsboro
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