Peak summer electric usage could require demand decrease

The regional power grid operator’s summer 2025 forecast is optimistic about meeting typical energy demand, but warns that extreme conditions may require decreased electricity use.

PJM Interconnection, the power grid operator for the eastern part of the country that includes 13 states and the District of Columbia, released its Summer Outlook 2025 report May 9, stating the power grid should have adequate reserves to maintain reliability throughout the summer.

But if electricity use hits an all-time high of 166,000 megawatts, the report states, reserves may not be able to provide necessary generation needed for customers.

“Under such circumstances, PJM would call on contracted demand response programs to meet its required reserve needs. Demand response programs pay customers who have opted in to reduce their electricity use in times of system emergencies,” the report states.

PJM said 1 MW can power about 800 homes, meaning at an all-time peak, more than 100 million homes could conceivably be affected.

PJM’s summer peak load record was set in 2006 with 165,563 MWs used, but in recent years, those numbers have dropped.

Last year, the peak was about 152,700 MWs, and in 2023, it was 147,000 MWs.

“PJM continues to voice concerns about the supply and demand imbalance driven by generator retirements and the slow build of new resources in the face of accelerating demand growth,” the report states.

Government policy crafted to create green, alternative energy sources, which forced the shutdown of many coal and natural gas power plants that provide base-load energy generation, was at the crux of a 2023 PJM report on resource retirements, replacements and risks.

During a legislative hearing on energy costs in February, PJM Vice President of State and Member Services Asim Haque said a combination of federal mandates and state policy has driven up electric costs as power generators have been pushed to retire prematurely.

“This is where things are starting to get hairy for us. We are forecasting quite a few retirements between now and 2030. A lot of them are driven by policy,” he said during the February hearing. “We are going to see a lot of resources leaving the system … A lot due to policies in place to push resources off the system, primarily environmental policies, some economic.”

Electric vehicles, data center proliferation and the race for artificial intelligence are also using a chunk of energy to operate. While data centers and AI are essential to economic growth and prosperity in the U.S., Haque said, they are also increasing demand for power.

To increase energy supply, the summer report states that PJM is seeking to bring new power generation resources online by streamlining connections to the grid and maximizing existing power sources.

Renewable resources will be more important than ever this summer to maintain reliability, the report states, and PJM plans to issue guidance for inverter-based resource owners, typically solar and wind.

“This outlook at a record peak heat scenario reflects our years-long and mounting concerns as we plan for enough resources to maintain grid reliability,” said Aftab Khan, executive vice president – operations, planning & security, in the report. “All resources within PJM’s footprint should be prepared to respond when called upon.”