The follow letter was sent to Sussex County Council with a copy provided to the Cape Gazette for publication.
I am writing to formally request that council ask DelDOT to provide detailed clarification and supporting documentation for the traffic projection figure of 26,800 vehicles per day, which has been cited in the context of the Atlantic Fields project proposal.
Specifically, I urge you to ask DelDOT the following:
• How was the 26,800 daily vehicle figure generated? Please provide the data sources, models, assumptions and any growth factors used to arrive at this number.
• What is the anticipated breakdown of this 26,800 number by major retail component? For instance, how many trips (peak hour and daily) are estimated for each of the proposed big box or anchor tenants? Without this breakdown, it is difficult to evaluate whether the mix of uses drives the stated figure and whether mitigation is scaled appropriately for each use.
• Was the projection based on the Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation Manual or other standard trip generation data? If yes: Please identify the ITE land-use code(s) used, the trip generation rates applied (daily, AM/PM peaks, weekend), and any adjustments (pass by, internal capture, diverted trips). It should be noted that the discount club or warehouse club category (which would include Costco) has been shown in documented cases to produce significantly more traffic than typical ITE rates reflect. For example, a review of the proposed Costco in Bel Air, Md., found that ITE-based trip generation rates were markedly lower than Costco’s own data for comparable stores. That same case reported that the traffic study underestimated annual traffic by more than 1.3 million trips. Thus, if DelDOT’s projection relies on unadjusted ITE rates, the risk of underestimating actual traffic impacts is real and significant.
Given the magnitude of the Atlantic Fields proposal and the documented congestion issues along Route 24 and the Love Creek bridge, the public and council members deserve transparent, realistic traffic forecasting. Only with detailed underlying assumptions and breakdowns can council confidently evaluate mitigation, safety and long term impacts.
Thank you for your attention to these critical questions. I ask that council insist on full disclosure from DelDOT prior to advancing the review of this project.
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