A University of Delaware poll released in early October predicts Democrats will win big in the governor's race, and in the presidential, U.S. House and Senate matches.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a commanding lead in Delaware, as do his party’s candidates in the statewide races for governor, U.S. senator and U.S. representative, according to the poll. The University of Delaware Center for Political Communication poll shows that 54 percent of likely voters in Delaware say they’ll vote for Biden, while only 33 percent support Donald Trump. The Democratic candidate’s 21-point lead is well outside the survey’s margin of error. “The poll results confirm that Biden is the heavy favorite to win his home state’s electoral votes,” said Paul Brewer, research director of the Center for Political Communication. “Biden’s margin in Delaware is also consistent with a 7- to 8-point national lead for him.”
In Delaware, Biden leads Trump by more than a two-to-one margin among women and New Castle County voters. The presidential race is much closer among men (46 percent to 43 percent). Trump leads among Kent County voters (41 percent to 44 percent) and Sussex County voters (40 percent to 44 percent).
Delaware Gov. John Carney holds a 29-point lead in his race for reelection. Among those polled, 55 percent support the Democratic incumbent, while 26 percent of likely voters say they’ll cast their ballot for Republican nominee Julianne Murray. Carney has a 40-point lead among women and a 15-point lead among men. He holds a three-to-one margin over Murray in New Castle County, though the race is closer in Kent County (42 percent to 34 percent) and Sussex County (43 percent to 38 percent).
The incumbents are also far ahead in Delaware’s congressional races. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Chris Coons holds a 30-point margin over Republican Lauren Witzke, 57 percent to 27 percent. In the U.S. House race, Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester leads Republican Lee Murphy by 22 points, 51 percent to 29 percent. Coons and Blunt Rochester lead by wide margins among women (63 percent to 20 percent for Coons; 57 percent to 23 percent for Blunt Rochester) and narrower margins among men (50 percent to 36 percent for Coons; 44 percent to 36 percent for Blunt Rochester). Both Democrats dominate in New Castle County (67 percent to 19 percent for Coons; 58 percent to 23 percent for Blunt Rochester).
The U.S. Senate race is more competitive in Kent County (Coons 40 percent, Witzke 30 percent) and Sussex County (Coons 43 percent, Witzke 45 percent). Similarly, Blunt Rochester holds a smaller lead over Murphy in Kent County (42 percent to 33 percent) and is essentially tied with him in Sussex County (41 percent each). “The big overall leads for Carney, Coons, and Blunt Rochester reinforce the First State’s status as a solidly blue state,” Brewer said. “Democrats have dominated recent statewide elections in Delaware. So far, none of this year’s Republican candidates shows signs of breaking that pattern.”
About the study
The National Agenda Opinion Project research was funded by the University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication with support from the College of Arts and Sciences. The study was supervised by the CPC’s Research Director Paul Brewer, a professor in the Departments of Communication and Political Science & International Relations.