Oscar predictions for 2018

The road to this year’s Oscar race has been a winding one, indeed. Just as a front-runner emerges, a dark horse gallops from behind and starts to close in on the finish line. Equally interesting will be if host Jimmy Kimmel will be able to ensure all the right envelopes get in the right hands to avoid any embarrassing screw-ups like last year’s Warren Beatty Best Picture mishap.

It all goes down at 8 p.m., Sunday, March 4. The following is a predictive piece of all major categories, including wager-worthy “who will” and probable passovers in a “who should win” suggestion. 

Best Picture:

• “Call Me by Your Name”
• “Darkest Hour”
• “Dunkirk”
• “Get Out”
• “Lady Bird”
• “Phantom Thread”
• “The Post”
• “The Shape of Water”
• “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who will win: “The Shape of Water.” The lustre of “Billboards” has eroded (the only other major contender) and considering that director was not even nominated, it’s even less hopeful. 

Who should win: As lovely as “Water” looks, no film has had such a lasting impression as “Get Out” in 2017. Its topical themes, humor and heart will linger long after the awards are bestowed. 

Lead Actor:

• Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
• Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
• Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
• Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
• Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Who will and should win: Oldman – he has been stockpiling awards this season, and even though “Thread” is rumored to be Day-Lewis’ swan song, this looks to be the night’s easiest lock.

Lead Actress:

• Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
• Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
• Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Who will win: McDormand is a force to be reckoned with this season and never delivers a half-hearted performance, but the flawed flick in which she stars should not be the one where she’s honored for earning gold. 

Who should win: Ronan deserves props for her achingly earnest portrayal of such a difficult age, and for elevating an otherwise good-not-great feature. 

Supporting Actor:

• Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
• Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
• Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Who will win: Rockwell has long been a shadow-dweller, despite repeated award-worthy performances. He’s equally excellent in “Billboards” (and has already amassed pre-Oscar statues for it).

Who should win: Dafoe is equally dependable as an actor, and he’s the heart and soul of “Florida.” 

Supporting Actress:

• Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
• Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
• Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
• Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
• Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Who will win: This one's the night’s biggest toss-up, with Janney and Metcalf taking turns taking home trophies for their maternal roles, but look for Janney to finish in first. 

Who should win: Metcalf was truly the core of “Lady Bird” as a mother who struggles to find the balance of proper parenting. 

Director:

• “Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
• “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
• “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
• “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
• “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Who will win: del Toro for “The Shape of Water.”

Who should win: From a technical standpoint, Nolan crafted “Dunkirk” with Swiss precision, even if the resulting film was emotionally hollow. 

Animated Feature:

• “The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
• “The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
• “Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
• “Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
• “Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Who will and should win: “Coco” – Pixar’s warm hug of a film is a vibrant, festive, fanciful flight. 

Adapted Screenplay:

• “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
• “The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
• “Logan,” Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
• “Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
• “Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Who will win: Ivory, who is the second-oldest person ever to be nominated for an Oscar. He has long been a favorite of the upper crust of the voting base, despite never having actually won an Oscar. 

Who should win: Perhaps it’s just a personal preference, and even if “Molly’s Game isn’t his “best” work, Sorkin has a way with words like no other living writer. 

Original Screenplay:

• “The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
• “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
• “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
• “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
• “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Who will and should win: Peele’s work on “Get Out” was a deft, ambitious and smashing debut. 

Best Documentary Feature:

• “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
• “Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
• “Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
• “Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jespersen
• “Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

Who will win: “Faces Places” has been winning hearts since its release at Cannes and has only picked up more admirers along the way.  

Who should win: The story of the White Helmets in Syria is one that rattles in your head for quite some time, and the way “Last Men in Aleppo” focuses on its founders and their struggles is hard to shake.